Introduction

For the purposes of this publication, the following four male swimmers will be referred to collectively as “The Foursome”:

Michael Phelps (USA) born June 30, 1985
Ryan Lochte (USA) born August 3, 1984
Laszlo Cseh (Hungary) born December 3, 1985
Thiago Pereira (Brazil) born January 26, 1986

Additionally, all swimming events and times are specifically referencing the Male 200 LCM Individual Medley, henceforth known as the 200 IM.

Swimming With The Foursome

Between 2004 and 2016, The Foursome competed in the 200 IM on an international stage a total of 44 times across 16 competitions. Individual results are included later in this case study, but here are some highlights:

The competitions referenced are the Olympics, World Championships (WC), Pan Pacific Championships (PPC), and the European Championships (EC)
Given the nationality of each swimmer:
- the Olympics (held once a quadrennial) and World Championships (held twice a quadrennial) are the competitions where The Foursome competed in the same final heat (covering three of four years)
- In the fourth year of the quadrennial, the Pan Pacific Championships served as the international competition for Phelps, Lochte, and Pereira while the European Championships was the international competition for Cseh
Of those 44 swims
- 15 were contested at 4 Olympics (2004, 2008, 2012, 2016)
- 19 were contested at 6 World Championships (2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015)
- 7 were contested at 3 Pan Pacific Championships (2006, 2010, 2014) and
- 3 were contested at 3 European Championships (2006, 2010, 2014)

For over a decade, fans had the pleasure of watching not one but four great swimmers compete against each other in the same event at an elite international competition. Regardless of where they were in life, multiple members of The Foursome continued to reach the final of the 200 IM year after year. Individually that fact is remarkable. On a group level, that fact is an example of greatness.

It is now 2021 and the Olympics start this month. And for the past five years, some swimming fans (like me) have waited in angst to know whether or not we will have even a glimpse of that greatness again.

Phelps and Pereira have since retired from competitive swimming, and Lochte failed to make the USA Olympic team this past month. That leaves Laszlo Cseh, who will represent Hungary in his fifth Olympics in Tokyo, as the last man swimming. The last Master of Medley. A final splash in a pool of greatness that at least one fan is humbled to have witnessed be filled.

And yes, I chose the word greatness on purpose. Here is why...

GOATS & GATORS

Is Michael Phelps the greatest swimmer of all time? On most metrics, including championship wins, the answer is absolutely yes. But does that make him the only great swimmer to ever live? On all metrics, the answer is absolutely no.

Michael Phelps achieved his GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) status because he was motivated both:

internally (i.e., setting personal records) and
externally (i.e., not losing to his opponents)

Internal motivation is “simple”. Evaluate your strengths and weaknesses, and estimate how much time you can drop by balancing the two in training to set your goal time. This is a pure “stay in your lane” mentality and your motivation is to make yourself better than only yourself, not your opponents.

External motivation, however, is more of a defining factor for GOATness. If the expectations of becoming a GOAT is about winning championships, then ipso facto the conversation of greatness should begin with reaching championship finals, and specifically the caliber of the competitors in those finals. Are some GOATS greater than others because of the competitors bested?

We all know wins are not given away for free, they are earned. Some take more effort than others, but they are never guaranteed. In swimming, there is a saying: if you have a lane, you have a chance. And in the 200 IM, if any one of The Foursome had a lane, they had a chance to win.

Born within 18-months of each other and maturing through their careers on similar timelines, every swimmer in The Foursome externally motivated each other in ways literally no other athlete on the planet could. Often entering or finishing the final in the top four positions, each swam their best time in the 200 IM while another member of The Foursome was in the same heat.

Moral of the story, there is no GOAT without a GATOR (Great Athlete Trailing On Rear). Mere mortals know the name Michael Phelps, but make no mistake that Phelps, Lochte, Pereira, and Cseh always knew not only each other’s name, but more importantly their strengths and weaknesses.

Tennis Majors

As a sidebar, even though I do not love comparing sports to other sports (especially when in separate categories), I could not help but think about the current men’s tennis landscape as another example of greatness.

If sticking with the vibe of the 200 IM example, particularly those involving more than one athlete, then for the purposes of this tennis example, the following male tennis players will be referred to collectively as “The Big 3”:

Roger Federer (Switzerland) born August 8, 1981
Rafael Nadal (Spain) born June 3, 1986
Novak Djokovic (Serbia) born May 22, 1987

When including the following two male tennis players, the reference will be “The Big 5”:

Stan Wawrinka (Switzerland) born March 28, 1985
Andy Murray (UK) born May 15, 1987

Lastly, the following four tennis competitions will be collectively referred to as the “Majors”:

The Australian Open
The French Open
The Championships, Wimbledon
US Open

From the 2003 season through the current ¾ of the 2021 season, there have been a total of 74 tennis Majors held. Wimbledon in 2020 was canceled due to the pandemic, and the 2021 US Open is not contested until August.

With 74 Majors, that means 74 winners and 74 runner-ups (i.e., 2nd place).

Of those 74 winners:

A member of The Big 3 claimed 60 titles (exactly 20 for each), for a win rate of 81%
A member of The Big 5 claimed 66 titles, for a win rate of 89%
The 8 titles not achieved by a member of The Big 5 were all one-time Major winners between 2003 and 2021

Of those 74 runner-ups:

A member of The Big 3 claimed 29 runner-up positions
A member of The Big 5 claimed 38 runner-up positions

That means 4 out of every 5 Majors was championed by a member of The Big 3, and 9 out of every 10 by a member of The Big 5. Furthermore, in nearly half of the matches they were competing against another member of The Big 5.

The longevity of these careers and caliber of these tennis players is one of the most impressive and greatest group efforts in all of sport.

In fact, since 2003, with the 74 Majors contested, The Big 5 has been absent from only 7 finals. Since 2006, only 2 finals.

Conclusion

Recognizing that any conversation regarding greatness is subjective, in this case, my attempt is to acknowledge the effort it takes to arrive, as opposed to only focusing on the result.

There may only be one winner, but the caliber of the athletes and breadth of performances is what makes a sport better, one competition at a time.

Thank You

And lastly, to The Foursome,

Thank you for making swimming better with your continued placement in the world elite, and for doing so with sportsmanship and camaraderie.

Sincerely,

A Humbled Fan

Appendix 1
200 IM Summary by Competition

2004 Olympics - Athens, Greece (08/19/2004)

In their first 200 IM international final together, The Foursome enters seeded 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.

Phelps wins and Lochte chases down the field to claim 2nd place over Cseh (4th) and Pereira (5th)

2005 World Championships - Montreal, Canada (07/28/2005)

All the participants drop time from a year prior, with Phelps defending his world #1 title and Cseh, who pushed the pace through the 150, holds on for 2nd over Lochte at 3rd

2006 Pan Pacific Championships - Victoria, Canada (08/20/2006) and
2006 European Championships - Budapest, Hungary (08/02/2006)

Phelps wins and breaks his world record even though Lochte (2nd) was leading at the 150
Meanwhile, three weeks prior at the European Championships, Cseh again showed he was a force to be reckoned with in his first 100 by outsplitting both Lochte and Phelps

2007 World Championships - Melbourne, Australia (03/29/2007)

For the first time since 2004, The Foursome are in the same final together
Phelps, Lochte, Cseh, and Pereira come into the final seeded 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 3rd - they finish the final 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th

2008 Olympics - Beijing, China (08/15/2008)

Just like the year prior, The Foursome held the top four spots coming into and leaving the final
Phelps wins by his widest margin yet, while Cseh (2nd) out-touches Lochte (3rd) by the slimmest margin possible

2009 World Championships - Rome, Italy (07/30/2009)

Lochte wins his first international title in the 200 IM on his way to breaking the world record
Cseh claims 2nd, just off his personal best from the night before, and Pereira also swims a personal best while moving up to 4th

2010 Pan Pacific Championships - Irvine, USA (08/21/2010) and
2010 European Championships - Budapest, Hungary (08/11/2010)

In the first year out of the fast-suit era, Lochte repeats as world #1 with his win at the Pan Pacific Championships in a time very close to his fast-suit time
Cseh and Pereira continue to impress in the first 150, but the freestyle leg is an advantage for the Americans

2011 World Championships - Shanghai, China (07/28/2011)

A similar experience from a quadrennial earlier, The Foursome enter the final ranked between 1st and 5th and finish between 1st and 6th
For the first time on an international stage, Phelps (2nd) is defeated in the 200 IM by Lochte (1st) who had to break his fast-suit era world record in order to win

2012 Olympics - London, England (08/02/2012)

Sticking with the Olympic theme, The Foursome again enter the final ranked 1st through 4th and finished ranked 1st through 4th
Between The Foursome, there were two races:
- Even though he lost his world record, Phelps (1st) defends his Olympic crown for a third time over Lochte (2nd)
- Cseh (3rd) and Pereira (4th) who were in adjacent lanes had their own battle brewing, with Cseh digging deep the last lap to chase down Pereira

2013 World Championships - Budapest, Hungary (08/01/2013)

Lochte (1st) defends his World Championship title from 2011 with Pereira (3rd) finally beating Cseh (5th)

2014 Pan Pacific Championships - Gold Coast, Australia (08/24/2014) and
2014 European Championships - Berlin, Germany (08/20/2014)

At the Pan Pacific Championships, Lochte was 5th after prelims but since he was the 3rd fastest American he swam in the B-Final at night and posted a time faster than anyone in the A-Final which included Phelps (2nd) and Pereira (4th)
Cseh continues his European dominance, but going forward he chooses not to swim the 200 IM in future meets

2015 World Championships - Kazan, Russia (08/06/2015)

Lochte (1st) wins his fourth World Championship title in a row while Pereira claims 2nd, his highest finish ever

2016 Olympics - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (08/11/2016)

Even before the gun went off, most knew this might be the last time we would see any of The Foursome in a 200 IM Olympic final - and on a personal note, I was fortunate to witness this race in person (just like I did at the 2008 and 2012 Olympics)
But this time the atmosphere felt different - partially because we knew it could be the last goodbye, but also because of the build-up leading into the final. This is what I mean:
- Phelps was going for his fourth Olympic title in a row, which had never been done before
- Lochte, the world record holder and four-time consecutive world champion, was going for his first Olympic title in the 200 IM
- Then, the meet was in Brazil and Pereira (a Brazilian) was coming off a fast swim in semi-finals to be seeded 3rd coming into finals
Alas the gun goes off, and after the 1st 50 when Pereira was leading I promise you I have never been in a louder swimming complex in my entire life (and I was at the Men’s 4x100 Relay in Beijing)
In the end, Phelps stamps his GOATness by becoming the first to win four Olympic titles in a row, while Lochte (5th) and Pereira (7th) faded

Appendix 2
Consolidated Swimming Tables

The table below is a combined index of each 200 IM swim by swimmer referenced in this publication:

The table below shows the combined fastest and slowest splits from each of the individual 200 IM swims referenced in this publication:

Appendix 3
Tennis Tables

The table below shows the winner and runner-up from the male tennis Majors from 2003 – 2021:

The table below shows the winning percentages of the male tennis Majors from 2003 – 2021:

Footnotes

Author: Elliot Meena

Published: July 16, 2021

Sources: Omega Timing, International Olympic Committee, USOpen.org, Wimbledon.com, RolandGarros.com, AUSOpen.com

Notes:

LCM: Long-Course-Meters (i.e., a 50-meter pool)